Pleasanton Zoned for Thousands of New Homes. Why So Few Are Reaching Buyers

If a city has zoned land for nearly 6,000 new homes, how many of them can a buyer actually tour this fall? In Pleasanton the number is much smaller than the headlines suggest, and the gap explains a lot about how the resale market behaves.

Pleasanton's state-assigned housing target for the 2023–2031 cycle is 5,965 units, including 2,758 intended for lower-income households, as Pleasanton Weekly reported when the city approved its settlement with the Housing Action Coalition. That target describes a plan. The homes someone can buy with a mortgage come out of a much thinner pipeline.

Four Stages Between a Zoning Map and a Front Door

Each new home in California goes through a series of filters before anyone moves in. Pleasanton's own figures show how much gets filtered out at each step.

1. Planned capacity. The housing element plans for 5,965 units over eight years.
2. Entitlement. Large projects such as the Villages at the Quarry on Busch Road have city approval but no construction yet.
3. Building permits. The state's Annual Progress Report data counts 18 units permitted in 2023, 139 in 2024 and 463 in 2025. That adds up to 620 over three years.
4. Certificates of occupancy. The same dataset lists 45 completed units in 2023, 45 in 2024 and 36 in 2025, or 126 homes in three years.

The state treats permits issued as its main measure of progress toward the target. The 2023 and 2024 completion breakdowns are identical in the raw data, so treat those two years as reported figures that the city has not separately confirmed. Either way, the order of magnitude holds. Pleasanton's three-year output of finished homes is about 2% of its eight-year target.

One Building Accounts for Most of the 2025 Jump

The 2025 permit count looks like a breakout. Of the 463 units permitted that year, 329 were market-rate. A single project at 4452 Rosewood Drive received a permit on July 14, 2025, for 253 of those market-rate units, and every one of them is a rental. The city's January 2026 development update calls it the Avalon Bay Project near California Center: a podium apartment building that is now under construction, with 31 units added through a later modification.

So about three-quarters of 2025's market-rate permits sit in one apartment building. That will add rental supply in the Hacienda area. It adds no homes to the for-sale market.

The other large name in the Stoneridge area follows a similar pattern. In 2023 the City Council approved a 360-unit for-rent apartment complex at 1008 Stoneridge Mall Road, Pleasanton Weekly reported at the time. As of the latest state data, that site shows no building permits.

The For-Sale Homes Actually Moving Forward

Leave out the rentals and the entitlements that haven't broken ground, and three for-sale projects remain. All three appear as active in the city's January 2026 update.

That comes to 111 homes, and 97 of them are attached. Barone's 14 houses are the only new detached homes in the active pipeline.

The large detached projects are a stage or two further back. The Villages at the Quarry, on the former Kiewit site at 3300 Busch Road, is planned for roughly 300 single-family homes along with multifamily units. City documents don't agree on the exact count, and the city's September 2026 project page lists it as approved rather than under construction. At its July 27 meeting, the council moved Arroyo Lago forward. That proposal, from Steelwave and 330 Land Company, covers 189 single-family homes plus 48 deed-restricted junior ADUs on about 30 acres that still require annexation, according to Pleasanton Weekly. The agreement also calls for a community facilities district. Anyone tracking that project will eventually want to know what that district's assessment adds to a homeowner's annual bill, and so far nobody has published that figure. Further out, Ponderosa Homes' Hidden Canyon plan for 28 homes is unlikely to start construction before 2028, according to the developer.

Where the October Rezoning Vote Fits

The next headline will make the pipeline sound bigger. City staff have tentatively scheduled the council vote for Oct. 20 on rezoning three Hacienda-area commercial properties. The sites are Hacienda West at 3825 and 3875 Hopyard Road, with up to 567 units; Metro 580 at 4515 Rosewood Drive, with up to 631 net new units; and 5960 Inglewood Drive, with up to 240. Together they could hold up to 1,438 homes. Each one is occupied today by an office or retail building of more than 100,000 square feet.

The settlement requires the rezoning to be finished by Dec. 31. Planning manager Derek Farmer told commissioners that no development is currently proposed on any of the sites, as Pleasanton Weekly reported:

"There is no development proposed on any of the sites or all of the sites at this time. Whether there is in the future is up to the development community."

Stoneridge is in the same position. In July, a group of local investors led by 300 Venture Group and CMG Group paid $10.7 million for the 8.4-acre former Nordstrom site, giving them control of 18.2 acres along with their former JCPenney parcel, the Mercury News reported. The owners described several options, from re-tenanting stores to denser development on parking areas. None of that is an approved housing project.

Rezoning makes these sites eligible for housing. Whether homes go up depends on a property owner choosing to replace an income-producing building, and then on that project working through the same four stages as everything else.

What a New Townhome Costs Next to a Resale One

Most new for-sale homes are attached, so attached buyers get the clearest view of the new-versus-resale price gap. Tri Pointe's Harmony page lists two move-in-ready homes, at 2037 and 2031 Santa Rita Road, for $1,262,900 and $1,309,900, with a monthly HOA fee of $490. These are live builder prices and can change.

The resale attached market for August 2026 looks like this, based on Bay East Association of REALTORS data:

• Median sale price: $780,000
• Closed sales: 8
• Active listings at month-end: 38
• Average days on market: 56
• Sale-to-list ratio: 97%

A median covers every size and age of condo, so it can't stand in directly for a three- or four-bedroom townhome with 1,407 to 2,328 square feet like Harmony's. Still, the size of the gap shows what the new-build premium pays for: a newer structure, a builder's timeline, and an HOA figure published before you buy. Meanwhile, resale attached listings in August averaged nearly two months on market and closed about 3% below list.

Detached Buyers Are Shopping a Resale Market

The detached side looks different. In August 2026, Pleasanton had 72 active detached listings, compared with 90 a year earlier. Closings fell 11.9% to 37. The median sale price was $1,500,000, down 9.69% year over year. Average days on market rose 24.1% to 36, and homes sold at 99% of list price, up from 97% in August 2025.

Those numbers seem to conflict. Prices are down and homes are taking longer to sell, yet sellers are getting closer to their asking price. A lower median can mean a different mix of homes sold, not just softer values, and sale-to-list ratios reflect how carefully listings are priced. Supply is the clearer fact. With 72 detached homes for sale and only 14 new detached homes under way across the whole city, nearly every detached purchase in Pleasanton is a resale purchase. The Quarry and Arroyo Lago would change that, but neither is under construction.

So rezoning, entitlements and the 2025 permit jump don't reach a buyer who wants a detached house in Pleasanton today. What matters for that buyer is the condition, pricing and improvement potential of existing homes. That's where renovation knowledge shapes the offer.

If you're weighing a new Tri Pointe townhome against a resale condo, or a dated detached house against waiting for the Quarry, Michael Forkas can help you compare what each option costs once construction quality, HOA fees and renovation scope are included. Let's Connect.

This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.